Md Nural Hoda Mila Chowdhury :
We struggled through critical phase burdened with high inflation for the last three years, unemployment amid Lack of both private and Public investment on the back of political uncertainty and economic fragility.
The deterioration reflects the combined impact of slower growth, worsening labour market conditions also reported by Washington based multilatual lender in its report titled “the Bangladesh Development update”.
Our Foreign debt rose to $112.15bn by June ’25 up 7% from $104.80 bn in March ’25. Outstanding debt rose from $92.37bn from #84 91bn in March 25. Debt in other Corporate sectors rose to $12.18bn from $11.30bn registered up by 8%. Private Sector Foreign debt endged down by 1% to $19.77bn in June ’25 from $19.88bn in March ’25. This is because of weak demand in Private Sector Credit growth standing at 6.49% in June ’25.
Local thinktank PRRC in August ’25 calculated poverty at 27.93% in May ’25 against 18.7% in 2022. World Bank on Tuesday said that poverty had worsend in Bangladesh as the rate climbed to 21.2% in the financial yr 2024-25 from 20.5% in FY 2023-24.
World Bank stated defining those as extreme poor who fail to earn $ 3par day to maintain the basic needs of food, clothing and shelter in place of previous $ 2.15 set in 2022.
Poverty on the lene of $3.0 is projected to rise to 8.9% in Bangladesh in 25 pushing about 1.2 million more people into poverty means about 6 crore population remains in poverty line creating serious social unrest because of vulnerability due to indebtedness, chronic diseases, food insecurity and disguised unemployment which plagued the households over the past one year.
The precarious conditions of our population having income inequality widening food alone accounts 54.9% of a household monthly expenditure followed by cost to Medical 7.5% Education 7.29% and Transport 5.4%.
It is very difficult to expect a positive Economic out look amid high inflation prevailing over three yrs a massive devaluation of the local currency and investment inertia until the holding of next Election.
According to Survey, about 19.8% household reported that they were facing financial crisis in the past one yr with highest medical expresses and 20% for loan repayment.
Borrowing to meet the food and medical cost indebted 40% households with bottom 4% population experience a net 7% increase in debt over the past 6 months. Insufficient food security left 12% poor skipping meals and nearly 9% population passed a day without food in the past months.
Survey focused on income, employment, expenditure, financial capacity, social safety net programmes, remittance, trends of concern and mood of household level since July 24 uprising concerns including aspirations, optimism, harassment and bribery towards bad effect to citizens.
Real Social picture shows the hurdles which has to overcome as such 71.5% found harassment at Market places, 21.6% in Govt. Services, 17.9% on Streets and 15.3% at work places highest 74.6% harassment was linked to “Nothing Works without money”.
Bureaucratic hassels, lack of clean service delivery delays in decision making, inattentive officials, Greedy attitude and lack of ethics in different forms.
Morcover, PRRC Survey shows payment of bribe to local thugs by household increased to 16.11% after August ’24 from previous 12.71%. 33.13% to political leaders and activists from previous 24.98%, 39.37% to police from previous 31.77% and 8.96% to court from previous 7.73%.
Bribing in Govt offices decreased to 46.75% from previous 52.34% and local Govt representative to 13.22% from 28.81%. Former Advisor Mr. Hossain Zillur said people had to pay bribe of 57.65% before August ’24 and 52.08% after August ’24 for faster service delivery and 33.19% before August ’24 and 30.96% after August ’24 for fear. At the end, 62% of the richest households expressed optimism about the future but a third of the poorest reported outright pessimism.
However, a majority of 54% remains cautiously hopeful for a corruption free society with education, employment and good health despite voicing deep concerns about inflation, unemployment and Governance.
Finally World Bank projected growth in GDP would rise to 4.8% in 26 from 4% in 25 and to reach 6.3% in 27.
Country is expected to follow an upward growth trajectory in medium term but urgent reforms were critical to sustaining growth and job creations especially for youths and women. Though employment Generation is a formidable challenge for the part of Govt.
political uncertainty discourages investment coupled with persistent policy uncertainties surrounding National Election and fragilities in the banking sector influence mostly affect private sector activities. Similarly, public investment growth is expected to remain subdued ahead of election.
Lastly People’s expectation should be focused on not only increase the Social Safety Network with special emphasis on more investment as well as ensuring good governance and economic democracy is a must.
