In the ever-evolving landscape of our world, the quest to unlock the mysteries of the future has been a constant endeavour. From ancient astrologers to modern-day analysts, the desire to predict and prepare for what lies ahead has always been a compelling pursuit. Today, businesses and nations alike seek glimpses into the future to navigate an increasingly uncertain climate. However, history has taught us that predictions are fraught with challenges, particularly when they miss the mark.
Take, for instance, the post-independence era of Bangladesh, once disparagingly labelled as a “basket case” and seen as a bottomless basket of poverty and despair. Fast forward to the present, and Bangladesh stands as a remarkable role model for development. In the 1972-73 fiscal year, the country’s per capita income was a mere $88, placing it among the lowest globally. Today, that figure has surged to $2,784 in the fiscal year 2023-24, reflecting a significant leap in prosperity. This transformation underscores the limitations of predictions and highlights the power of resilience and strategic planning.
Bangladesh’s progress spans various spheres of life, driven by comprehensive strategies and visionary leadership. Rather than relying on speculative predictions, it is prudent to analyze the available statistics, facts, and figures to understand how current developments might shape our lives over the coming decades.
Since 2009, Bangladesh has been diligently formulating long-term strategic plans to chart its development pathway. Among these, the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100) stands out as the most ambitious, targeting a safe, climate-resilient, and prosperous delta by the end of the century. The first International Conference on BDP 2100, held in May 2022, underscored the collaborative efforts between Bangladesh and strategic partners like the Netherlands, aiming to formulate and implement this visionary plan.
The Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 is a holistic blueprint encompassing economic growth, environmental conservation, and enhanced climate resilience. Without its implementation, the country could face dire consequences, including declining agricultural production, increased unemployment, and migration pressures, leading to urbanization challenges and a potential decline in GDP growth to 6.8% by 2031 and 5.6% by 2041. Moreover, an additional 25.1 million people could be living in moderate poverty, with 5.4 million in extreme poverty by 2041.
Effective execution of the Delta Plan, however, promises to eliminate extreme poverty, create more jobs, sustain GDP growth above 8% until 2041, and significantly enhance trade, navigational opportunities, and food security. Moreover, it aims to reduce urban migration by about 60%, coastal zone out-migration by 50%, and river area out-migration by 50%.
Demographically, Bangladesh’s population growth is expected to stabilize, with projections suggesting that it will not exceed 220 million. Factors such as government policies, women’s education, and empowerment have contributed to a steady decline in the birth rate, now approaching replacement levels. By 2050, as Bangladesh attains developed country status, it may face population decline, similar to current trends in Japan. According to research by the University of Washington, Bangladesh will rank as the 25th most populated country by 2100, with 81 million people.
Significant investments are underway to enhance Bangladesh’s water supply, sanitation, drainage infrastructure, and embankment systems. The World Bank has committed $1.8 billion to improve these areas and boost trade through the enhanced navigability of 900 km of inland waterways. Upcoming projects will further support BDP 2100, focusing on river management, pollution reduction, and climate-resilient agriculture. For example, the Climate Smart Agriculture and Water Management Project aims to rehabilitate water control infrastructures, drainage, and irrigation systems, making an area of 125,000 hectares climate-resilient.
Institutional and policy reforms are crucial to the success of BDP 2100. The establishment of a Delta Governance Council and an inter-ministerial forum headed by the Prime Minister underscores the government’s commitment to strategic direction. With strong dedication to BDP 2100, Bangladesh is poised to become a global centre of excellence in delta and water management, leveraging an integrated approach to water, land, and resource management. Effective coordination among stakeholders will be vital to achieving the BDP 2100 vision. The Bangladesh Water Platform, supported by the Global Water Security and Sanitation Partnership, plays a crucial role in facilitating collaborative efforts among partners. This platform supports policy reforms, institutional arrangements, and capacity building across government ministries.
Implementing BDP 2100’s goals demands sustained effort, managing investments, aligning planning and financing processes, and fostering public-private partnerships. The World Bank remains committed to supporting Bangladesh on its journey towards a safe, climate-resilient, and prosperous delta. Bangladesh’s remarkable transformation from poverty to resilience and progress is a testament to visionary planning and collective effort. By the next century, Bangladesh aims to become a global leader in sustainable development, economic prosperity, and social equity.
The commitment to sustainable development, enshrined in Vision 2041 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), will be the bedrock for the nation’s transformation. By the next century, Bangladesh will have established itself as a global leader in climate resilience and sustainable practices, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources. Coastal regions will be fortified by innovative engineering solutions like floating agricultural systems and climate-resilient infrastructure.
Economically, Bangladesh will evolve from an agrarian-based economy to a knowledge-based powerhouse driven by technological innovation and strategic diversification. The rise of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will position Bangladesh as a global hub for technology and innovation, fostering a vibrant startup ecosystem. Healthcare and education will be the cornerstones of social progress, with universal access to advanced medical technologies and STEM education preparing youth for future challenges. Bangladesh’s rich cultural heritage will continue flourishing, serving as a source of national pride and global influence.
In envisioning a future for Bangladesh, we hope to see our nation harnessing its potential to become a global leader in sustainable development, economic innovation, and social equity. This transformation will be driven by collective efforts from the government, private sector, civil society, and the people of Bangladesh.
Apurba Mogumder is an Apprentice Lawyer, District and Session Judge Court, Dhaka.
